2026-10-24 · contested story

Texas Senate Odds Show Talarico Lead Growing

With early voting underway in Texas, the closely watched U.S. Senate race between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton has become one of the marquee contests of the 2026 midterms. A striking array of polls—UT/Texas Politics Project (50-47 Talarico), University of Houston Hobby School (48-46), CBS News/YouGov (51-49), Emerson (47-46), AARP (48-44)—show Talarico holding narrow leads, while prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket price him as a clear favorite (62-63% on Kalshi per CBS Austin/KEYE). The 'odds' story is twofold: polling that shows a razor-thin Talarico edge, and betting markets that have moved decisively toward the Democrat since early September. A Democrat has not won statewide in Texas since 1994 (Senate since 1988), making the competitiveness itself the headline. Paxton's scandal history—a 2023 impeachment (acquitted), securities fraud charges (settled without admission), alleged affairs, and a Wall Street Journal report of a Dubai New Year's party with indicted fugitives—anchors much of the coverage.

How each side frames it

left
"Ken Paxton's Senate campaign could be in more trouble as the Texas Republican loses crucial support among suburban women."
"In Talarico, Democrats have landed a well-funded candidate unsullied by doings in Washington—someone whose faith-based populism impressed Joe Rogan and Barack Obama and showed strength in the places the party has been hemorrhaging support."
"running against one of the most corrupt, lazy, and personally repulsive Republican candidates of all time in Ken Paxton (and that is an extremely competitive category)"
"That was a human being, a child of God. That was our sibling sacrificed on the altar of corporate greed."
"In a few short weeks, US voters will have an opportunity to beat back the forces of fascism and confront the billionaires who are rigging the economy"
center
"The Texas Senate race is tight — essentially tied — and now all about...turnout."
"it's rare to find a poll that's not linked to some party or some organization which is at least implicitly or explicitly towards Ken Paxton that has Paxton up"
"So the way that I would put it is 60 percent is not 100 percent. Talarico is currently trading at 62 percent on our market. That is not 100 percent."
"One shouldn't conclude that means Democrats are going to win all those those races... It means that Democrats are benefiting … in particular this poll, from this gap in enthusiasm."
"Talarico has led five of these six polls, and the one Paxton led was by a single point. The simple average of the six margins works out to Talarico by about 2.3 points."
right
"An anti-gun, anti-meat, anti-oil cheerleader for child transsexualism faces an uphill climb in a state that has flaunted its red-state credentials of late."
"a leftist, "Christian"-cosplaying caricature like Talarico, who argues that the Annunciation justifies abortion"
"For the first time since 1988, Texans might be gearing up to elect a Democratic senator. The reason? Republicans are not catering to the concerns of regular Americans."
"Democrat Texas state Rep. James Talarico said that he loved transgender children when asked to name something he loved other than family and friends"
"The polls will probably tighten, as they often do. In Texas and around the nation, there is a long track record of pollsters showing large Democrat leads, only to see those leads dwindle or even vanish in a Republican win come Election Day."

What each side left out

The left left out — covered by the The Bulwark & Just The News & Dallas Express
The right left out — covered by the The Guardian & The Daily Beast & The Washington Post
The center left out — covered by the Broad + Liberty & The American Prospect
The right left out — covered by the KEYE/CBS Austin & Kalshi News & The Mirror US

What's actually true?

[verified] The UT/Texas Politics Project poll shows Talarico leading Paxton 50% to 47%, within the margin of error
[verified] The University of Houston Hobby School poll shows Talarico at 48%, Paxton at 46%, Libertarian Ted Brown 3%, undecided 3%
[verified] A Democrat has not been elected to statewide office in Texas since 1994, and the last Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate was Lloyd Bentsen in 1988
[verified] Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket show Talarico leading with about 62-63% of trades versus 38% for Paxton
[verified] Paxton was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House in 2023 over corruption/abuse-of-power allegations and acquitted by the Texas Senate
[verified] The Wall Street Journal reported Paxton was filmed at a 2024 New Year's Eve party in Dubai with an extramarital girlfriend and two men under indictment for federal healthcare fraud, one of whom had donated $190,000 to Paxton
[verified] Talarico won the Democratic primary over Rep. Jasmine Crockett, performing especially well among Latino voters (about 60% in heavily Latino counties)
[verified] A right-wing claim that Talarico was treated at an Ohio mental health facility was false; the facility stated he 'has never received treatment' there and Talarico said he was recovering from the flu at home in Austin

The narrative clash

Who leads the Senate race
Left: Multiple polls have shown Talarico leading Paxton in the crucial Texas Senate race. On Sunday, a CBS News/YouGov poll showed the Democrat with a two-point lead, 51 percent to 49 percent
Right: A new poll of likely voters shows Republican Ken Paxton leading Democrat James Talarico 48% to 45% in the Texas U.S. Senate race. The Pulse Decision Science survey... was identified as a Republican internal poll.
Whether Talarico's polling lead is meaningful or will evaporate like Beto's in 2018
Left: Even in 2018, [Democratic nominee] Beto O'Rourke was trailing [Ted Cruz] in virtually every poll at this point in the race. In contrast, in most polls being done, Talarico has an advantage.
Right: Beto O'Rourke's narrow loss to Ted Cruz in 2018 gives the impression that another surprise is possible in Texas, but the state's recent electoral landscape and Talarico's legislative track record make his win a massive bridge to cross.
Whether Talarico is a moderate or a radical
Left: Democrat James Talarico is a state representative and seminarian, running as a moderate, guided by his Christian faith.
Right: the far-left state representative... the guy taking a sledgehammer to the oil and gas and cattle industries is seeking statewide office in Texas.

106 sources analyzed

The American Prospect The Guardian NBC 5 Dallas-Fort Worth Broad + Liberty Fox News The Daily Beast The Texas Tribune CBS News New York Post Washington Examiner The Bulwark CNN University of Houston Investor's Business Daily WORLD News Group MSNBC CNN KSAT Investor's Business Daily The Daily Signal MSNBC PBS KWTX The Dispatch Vox NBC News Houston Public Media The Dispatch Vox The Washington Post KEYE The Dispatch Vox Los Angeles Times C-SPAN The Dispatch Vox Los Angeles Times Yahoo Reason Common Dreams Los Angeles Times CNA Reason Common Dreams Los Angeles Times FOX 4 News Dallas-Fort Worth Reason Common Dreams NPR Malay Mail Reason Common Dreams NPR Texas Standard Just The News Mother Jones NPR NewsRadio 740 KTRH Just The News Mother Jones The Washington Post FOX One Just The News Mother Jones The Washington Post Quantus Insights Just The News Mother Jones The Washington Post ActiVote The Washington Post Axios ABC13 Houston El Paso Matters KERA News Breakthroughs FOX 7 Austin Community Impact KRIS 6 News Corpus Christi Denton Record-Chronicle KUT Newsweek FOX 26 Houston San Antonio Report The Irish Times EL PAÍS English El Mundo America Bryan College Station Eagle KVII Dallas Express Local 3 News - Emerson Polling News From The States economictimes.com Lone Star Left eciks.org WLOS The Facts OddsShopper Kalshi News gambling911.com Action Network AOL.com The Mirror US Creators Syndicate Fort Worth Star-Telegram

Perspectivity reads the coverage — not just who published it.

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