2026-09-28 · contested story
Right Leader Le Pen And Hard Left Melenchon Positioned For French Presidential Run Off Polls Show
A Toluna Harris Interactive poll published September 28, 2026 for M6 and RTL found that far-right National Rally leader Marine Le Pen and far-left France Unbowed leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon are on track to reach the second round of France's 2027 presidential election in all five scenarios tested. Le Pen leads the first round with 35% to 36% (up from 33% in mid-September), Mélenchon polls 17% to 18%, and leading centrist Édouard Philippe falls short at 13% to 16%. Le Pen is projected to win the runoff decisively — 69% against Mélenchon and 57% against Philippe — signaling a France where centrists are collapsing amid rising prices, a sluggish economy and geopolitical instability.
The framing diverges sharply by lean. Right-leaning outlets like The Telegraph emphasize Le Pen's resilience despite her embezzlement conviction, noting the verdict 'strengthened rather than damaged her candidacy.' Center outlets (Reuters, France 24, lindependant.fr) report the poll numbers straight, framing it as a contest 'between extremes' with centrists falling behind. Left-leaning coverage is more anxious and analytical: Politico highlights Mélenchon's youth appeal (47% of 18-34s), while The Guardian editorializes that left 'division makes Marine Le Pen's path to the Élysée more straightforward,' framing the story as a self-inflicted failure of a fragmented left rather than merely a poll snapshot.
How each side frames it
left
"The obvious danger, as the most important election in the history of the Fifth Republic looms, is that chronic division will ease Ms Le Pen's path to the Élysée."
"At which point, polls predict, France's traditional "Republican front" against the far right would disintegrate, handing Ms Le Pen a crushing victory."
"Mélenchon is proving particularly popular among younger voters, with 47% of 18- to 34-year-olds currently planning to support the far-left candidate in the first round, against 22.2% for Le Pen."
"Voters would have to choose between two contenders who, despite their stark differences, are both keen to pull France out of NATO and are critical of the European Union."
"The National Rally candidate said she would always favor French citizens over foreigners."
center
"French far-right candidate Marine Le Pen and far-left contender Jean-Luc Melenchon are seen reaching a run-off vote in next year's presidential election in each of five scenarios polled, according to a survey published on Monday."
"The results of the poll suggest that French voters may face a contest between extremes in the election, set for next April and May, with centrists falling behind at a time of rising prices, a sluggish economy and geopolitical instability."
"Un sondage, comme toute enquête d'opinion, est une photographie du moment sans valeur prédictive."
"L'étude montre également que derrière une Marine Le Pen hégémonique, entre 35 et 36 % au premier tour, le tribun insoumis devancerait le maire du Havre."
"Selon le dernier baromètre Toluna Harris Interactive pour M6 et RTL publié ce lundi 28 septembre, la candidate du Rassemblement national et le candidat insoumis seraient en passe de se qualifier pour la présidentielle, et cela dans tous les cas de figure."
right
"The findings suggest that the conviction has strengthened rather than damaged her candidacy."
"Frédéric Dabi, Ifop's director-general, said Le Pen was polling at an unprecedented level and had erased the advantage previously enjoyed by Jordan Bardella, her 30-year-old heir apparent."
"In the run-off, Le Pen would defeat Mr Philippe by 54 to 46 per cent, Mr Attal by 55 to 45 and Mr Mélenchon, the hard-Left firebrand, by 70 to 30."
"We need a fresh start. She's a candidate we haven't tried. I say she deserves a chance. We've seen all the others."
"It placed Ms Le Pen on 34 to 36 per cent in the first round, against 20 per cent for Mr Philippe and 16 per cent for either Mr Attal or Mr Mélenchon."
What each side left out
The right left out — covered by the Politico & The Guardian US
- Mélenchon's strong youth appeal (47% of 18-34s)
- framing of left division as the cause of Le Pen's advantage
The left left out — covered by the The Telegraph - UK
- Le Pen polling at 'unprecedented' levels and erasing Bardella's advantage
- detail that conviction may have strengthened rather than damaged her
The center left out — covered by the The Guardian US & Politico
- editorial judgment that left disunity is the primary driver of Le Pen's path
- Mélenchon's unpopularity ceiling (73% say little/no chance of voting for him)
The right left out — covered by the The Guardian US
- Le Pen's runoff second-round losses being framed as a disintegration of the 'Republican front'
The left left out — covered by the Reuters & France 24 & lindependant.fr
- specific runoff percentages showing Le Pen decisively winning 69% vs Mélenchon and 57% vs Philippe
What's actually true?
[verified] Le Pen is seen winning 35% to 36% in the first round, up from 33% in an earlier poll published on September 14.
[verified] Mélenchon would join Le Pen in the second round, winning between 17% and 18%.
[verified] Le Pen would win 69% of votes against Melenchon and 57% against Philippe in the second round.
[verified] The poll was conducted from September 22 to 24 for M6 and RTL.
[unverified] Mélenchon is proving particularly popular among young people, with 47% of 18- to 34-year-olds planning to vote for him in the first round.
[verified] Melenchon has already run three times for president in 2012, 2017 and 2022 but has never managed to reach the second round.
[verified] In the 2022 presidential election, Mélenchon won 22% of the vote and was only 1.2 percentage points behind Le Pen.
[verified] The Paris appeals court reduced Le Pen's electoral ban to an effective 15 months (already served since March 2025), making her immediately eligible to stand despite her embezzlement conviction.
The narrative clash
Runoff margin of Le Pen over Philippe
Left: not addressed in identical terms; left focuses on first-round dynamics
Right: She would beat Mr Philippe by 51 to 49 in the run-off (July Toluna poll) vs 54 to 46 (July Ifop poll)
Le Pen's runoff share vs Philippe over time
Left: She would win 57% of votes against Philippe (September poll)
Right: She would beat Mr Philippe by 51 to 49 in the run-off (July poll)
24 sources analyzed
Ground News Reuters Politico The New Republic Al Jazeera U.S. News & World Report The Damage Report New Statesman Sky News CBC News The Telegraph - UK The Conversation lindependant.fr BBC News The Guardian US NBC News Spokesman Review The Washington Post Vox France 24 politika.rs ladepeche.fr protothema.gr cmp.osano.com