2026-10-24 · contested story
New Poll Shows James Talarico Could Flip Texas
A wave of October 2026 polls — the UT/Texas Politics Project, Marist, Emerson, Fox News, New York Times/Siena, AARP, and the University of Houston Hobby School — consistently show Democrat James Talarico holding a narrow lead (typically 2-4 points, often within the margin of error) over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in a Texas Senate race that would, if Talarico won, produce the first Democratic statewide victory in Texas since the 1990s. The race has become one of the most expensive and watched contests of the midterms, with combined ad spending surpassing $500 million and tech billionaire Elon Musk pouring roughly $158-190 million toward Paxton. The central narrative fuses an unusually strong, faith-forward Democratic candidate against a scandal-plagued, Trump-endorsed Republican, set against a backdrop of Trump's underwater approval in Texas and a late-breaking episode in which Talarico vanished from the trail for over a week with the flu, spawning a debunked conspiracy theory that he was in an Ohio mental health facility.
How each side frames it
left
"Donald Trump's scandal-ridden endorsed candidate in the Texas Senate race could lose the crucial midterm election, according to a new poll."
"His corruption and dictator-megalomania are badly alienating independents."
"running against one of the most corrupt, lazy, and personally repulsive Republican candidates of all time in Ken Paxton (and that is an extremely competitive category)"
"If ever there were a year... given the conditions — Trump, Paxton, the economy, the war in Iran, the candidates, the coalition — it is this year."
"I start to feel like it's this secret underground club who don't want Paxton in office"
center
"All six statewide contests surveyed are within the poll's reported margin of error, meaning there's no statistically clear leader."
"Even in 2018, [Democratic nominee and then-U.S. Rep.] Beto O'Rourke was trailing [Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz] in virtually every poll at this point in the race... In contrast, in most polls being done, Talarico has an advantage."
"Talarico has led five of these six polls, and the one Paxton led was by a single point. The simple average of the six margins works out to Talarico by about 2.3 points."
"there is a lot of unhappiness with the status quo, but that doesn't mean that there's fertile terrain for a new third party"
"Despite the polling, the Republicans are actually getting a break because James Talarico is a nut."
right
"the man is a human Mr. Potato Head, a political Frankenstein who has not one authentic part of his being."
"Although that's probably not all that surprising from a Texas leftist who has insisted that God is nonbinary and that there are six sexes."
"Or is it because his campaign team realized that flying back from the high-priced fundraiser he attended with leftist glitterati in New York City on Sept. 29 to a Dallas urgent care facility would seem nearly impossible based on publicly available flight data."
"Talarico might not win. In fact, I don't think he will. But it is crucial to understand how to best prevent a leftist, 'Christian'-cosplaying caricature like Talarico... from getting a job promotion to Washington."
"Though typically Republican-leaning, Texas has witnessed a litany of polls showing Democratic nominee James Talarico ahead of Paxton in the contest, prompting the president to get involved on behalf of his chosen candidate."
What each side left out
The right left out — covered by the Boston Herald/AP & KVII/AP & Tangle News
- AP/NYT confirmation that the Ohio mental-health conspiracy was debunked by security footage and the facility's own denial
- Talarico's type 1 diabetes raising flu-complication risk
The right left out — covered by the The New Republic & New York Post & AOL/Mediaite
- Fox News's own poll showing Talarico ahead and Paxton 18 points underwater on favorability
- near-universal agreement Paxton is a uniquely weak candidate
The left left out — covered by the Just The News & NewsRadio 740 KTRH & FOX 26 Houston/AARP
- Paxton's and GOP internal polls showing Paxton ahead or tied
- Historical pattern of Texas polls overestimating Democrats
- Older/rural voters strongly favoring Paxton and being more motivated
The left left out — covered by the The Federalist & Dallas Express & The New Republic (Black vote piece)
- Substance of Talarico's walked-back positions on trans issues, capitalism and 'six sexes' as potential liabilities
- Jasmine Crockett's refusal to fully back Talarico and the Black-vote vulnerability
The center left out — covered by the Los Angeles Times & EL PAÍS English & The New Republic
- Strong moral/ideological framing of why Paxton is scandal-ridden
- The emotional voter-impact stories from immigration raids in the Rio Grande Valley
The right left out — covered by the The Washington Post & The Daily Beast
- Suburban and conservative women defecting from Paxton over scandals (pen theft, divorce, affairs)
What's actually true?
[verified] A Democrat has not won a statewide race / Senate seat in Texas since the late 1980s (1988 for Senate, 1994 for any statewide office).
[verified] Multiple October polls show Talarico narrowly leading Paxton, typically within the margin of error (UT/TPP 50-47, Marist 47-45, Fox News tied among likely voters, UH 48-46).
[verified] Combined ad spending in the Texas Senate race has surpassed $500 million.
[verified] Elon Musk contributed roughly $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, which routed money to Texas PAC supporting Paxton (LA Times cites ~$190M total across groups).
[verified] The rumor that Talarico was treated at an Ohio mental health facility (Lindner Center of Hope) is false; the facility denied it and AP/NYT found he was home in Austin.
[verified] Paxton was impeached by the Republican-led Texas House in 2023 over bribery/abuse-of-power allegations and was acquitted by the state Senate.
[verified] Paxton leads among voters 50 and older (AARP: 53%-40%, a 13-point lead) even as Talarico leads overall, and older voters are more motivated to turn out.
[verified] Talarico is winning independents by a large margin (roughly 20-30 points across polls) and has pulled Latino voters back toward Democrats after Trump's 2024 gains.
The narrative clash
Who leads the race / direction of the polling
Left: a new poll of the contest from The New York Times finds a dead heat, with Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton each earning 47 percent of likely voters... This is a real race. In Texas.
Right: A new poll of likely voters shows Republican Ken Paxton leading Democrat James Talarico 48% to 45% in the Texas U.S. Senate race. The Pulse Decision Science survey... was identified as a Republican internal poll.
Whether Talarico's flu absence and timeline are legitimate or suspicious
Left: The Lindner Center of Hope wrote in an X post on Sunday that Talarico 'has never received treatment' from the facility. Talarico replied... 'I've never even been to Ohio.'
Right: no public reporting places him in Dallas, or traveling, on the night of Sept. 29... Talarico would have to be moving at breakneck speed — with a bad case of the flu, nonetheless — to make it from the fundraising event to the late-night urgent care facility. That would seem highly unlikely.
Whether Talarico is a credible moderate or a disguised radical
Left: Majorities of Texas voters say Talarico has 'good character' and 'the right moral values,' whereas majorities don't say that of Paxton.
Right: This 'Change My Mind' was supposed to be an opportunity for Talarico to soothe his skeptics' fears about his radicalism... Instead, it further proved that the 'Christian who hates Christianity' has no business holding authority in church or state
Whether the Bible is silent on abortion
Left: Talarico described the Bible as being silent on abortion
Right: 'I just want to add that the Bible is not silent on abortion. There is the 10 Commandments: Thou shall not kill,' Hunt shot back.
109 sources analyzed
The American Prospect The Guardian Axios New York Post WORLD News Group The Daily Beast The Texas Tribune FOX 7 Austin Broad + Liberty Fox News The Bulwark CNN The Irish Times New York Post Washington Examiner The Boston Globe PBS Quantus Insights New York Post The Federalist The Boston Globe msn.com KSAT New York Post The Federalist The Boston Globe CNN Fort Worth Star-Telegram Boston Herald The Federalist MSNBC The Washington Post EL PAÍS English New York Post The Federalist The Daily Beast NBC News CBS News Boston Herald City Journal The Daily Beast Los Angeles Times Newsweek Richmond Times-Dispatch City Journal The Boston Globe NPR Texas Standard The Dispatch The Daily Beast NPR El Mundo America The Dispatch The New Republic NPR Bryan College Station Eagle The Dispatch The New Republic NPR KVII The Dispatch The New Republic CNN Dallas Express Just The News The New Republic CNN Local 3 News Just The News NBC News FOX 4 News Dallas-Fort Worth Just The News CNN Yahoo Just The News CNN - Emerson Polling NBC News News From The States NBC News NewsRadio 740 KTRH NBC News economictimes.com Lone Star Left eciks.org WLOS The Facts OddsShopper Kalshi News gambling911.com FOX 26 Houston Action Network AOL.com The Mirror US Creators Syndicate NBC 5 Dallas-Fort Worth University of Houston Houston Public Media KWTX C-SPAN KEYE CNA Malay Mail Denton Record-Chronicle FOX One ActiVote KCBD News Radio 1200 WOAI Tangle News