2026-10-21 · contested story

It’s not just California’s billionaire tax. Wealth is on the ballot in the midterm elections.

California's Proposition 40 — a first-in-the-nation, one-time 5% tax on the net worth of the state's roughly 200-250 billionaires — has become one of the most expensive ballot fights in state history, with opponents raising over $340 million (led by Google co-founder Sergey Brin's $102 million) against roughly $33 million for supporters led by SEIU-United Healthcare Workers West. The measure, designed to backfill an estimated $100 billion in federal healthcare funding cuts from Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill,' has splintered Democrats: Gov. Gavin Newsom, gubernatorial candidates Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton, Planned Parenthood, and major unions oppose it, while Bernie Sanders, Ro Khanna, and the state Democratic Party support it. Competing countermeasures Props 41 and 42, bankrolled by the same billionaires, could nullify the tax even if it passes. The Lever frames this as part of a broader national picture with wealth measures also on ballots in Colorado, Washington, and North Carolina.

How each side frames it

left
"It thrills me to read that Peter Thiel and Larry Page may flee California if the state implements a one-time 5 percent wealth tax on billionaires. On fairness grounds, Thiel and Page have no case."
"In a scenario where [gross domestic product] growth is 10–20% a year and AI is rapidly taking over the economy, yet single individuals hold appreciable fractions of the GDP... The thing to worry about is a level of wealth concentration that will break society."
"They went too far actively bowing down to Trump and donating him money... and then there were many, many, many of them directly referenced and associated with [Jeffrey] Epstein and [Ghislaine] Maxwell, child sex traffickers."
"an infuriating tactic known as 'buy, borrow, die'... thanks to a legal abomination called the 'step-up in basis' rule"
"It's a onetime tax, but this is not a onetime problem. This is an ongoing problem, year in and year out. Why are we talking about a onetime Band-Aid?"
center
"Everything else is the topic of contention, including how much money the tax would raise, whether it will prompt billionaires to leave California... What these questions have in common is that their answers are fundamentally unknowable."
"But if approved by voters in November, it's unclear how much money the ballot initiative would raise, how quickly the funding would become available, and how lawmakers would spend it."
"Among 105 respondents, 69.5 percent opposed the proposal, including 71.0 percent of economists and 85.0 percent of accountants. Lawyers were more supportive, with 60.0 percent favoring the tax."
"On its own, it obviously can't do anything; it's just patching a temporary hole, right? But I think that there is a certain amount of symbolic value of Prop 40."
"By absolute counts, the tax dollars are a lot, but by percentage, the tax rate doesn't seem like that much all things considered."
right
"With just these three relocations, 38 percent of California's billionaire wealth walked out the door... the Golden State stands to lose nearly as much as $4.5 billion per year from billionaire flight."
"SEIU has spent months positioning itself as the champion of nurses, teachers and caregivers. What it has actually done is run a $24 million campaign to put a measure on the ballot that could eventually be used to tax virtually any Californian who owns assets."
"The text may call it a one-time tax, but if the ones driving the measure have their way, it won't be."
"I fled socialism with my family in 1979 and know the devastating, oppressive society it created in the Soviet Union. I don't want California to end up in the same place."
"Payne highlights that over $1.8 trillion in wealth has already fled the state, threatening its economic stability."

What each side left out

The right left out — covered by the CBS News & Truthout & Times of San Diego (KFF)
The right left out — covered by the The Boston Globe & Vox & The New Republic & Mother Jones
The left left out — covered by the TaxProf Blog & Orange County Register & City Journal
The left left out — covered by the City Journal & Orange County Register & Bloomberg Government News & UCLA Newsroom
The center left out — covered by the The New Republic & The Boston Globe & California DSA
The right left out — covered by the The Boston Globe & CBS News

What's actually true?

[verified] Proposition 40 would impose a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of Californians worth more than $1 billion, with ~90% of revenue going to healthcare and the rest to education and food assistance.
[verified] Sergey Brin contributed at least $102 million to Building a Better California to oppose the tax, the single largest donor.
[verified] Opponents raised more than $340 million against the tax, roughly 10 times the ~$33 million raised by supporters.
[verified] The tax applies retroactively to anyone who was a California resident as of January 1, 2026, a date chosen to prevent billionaires from escaping by relocating.
[verified] Competing Propositions 41 and 42, funded by the same billionaires, would nullify Prop 40 if either receives more votes.
[contested] Proponents (Saez/Zucman) estimate the tax would raise about $100 billion over five years; the Hoover Institution's Joshua Rauh estimates ~$40 billion direct revenue and a central scenario net loss of $24.7 billion.
[verified] Polling showed the measure with only a narrow plurality in the mid-40s to low-50s, short of a clear majority in the weeks before the election.
[verified] Gov. Gavin Newsom opposes Prop 40 but has called for a federal/national tax on billionaires instead.

The narrative clash

Whether the tax will net gain or net lose revenue for California
Left: Proponents calculate that the state will gain about $100 billion.
Right: the measure would collect roughly $40 billion—less than half the proponents' headline $100 billion figure... the present value of those lost future tax payments could exceed what the wealth tax would collect. That would leave California poorer overall.
Whether high-earner/wealth taxes cause the rich to flee
Left: previous California tax increases on millionaires didn't lead to a mass exodus of wealthy people. 'These really high-income folks — they're already doing great, and they don't need to move somewhere else.'
Right: A Golden State ballot measure that would levy a one-time 5% tax on people with a net worth of $1 billion or more has entrepreneurs headed for the exits. They're taking their ideas, businesses and jobs with them.
Whether it is still possible for billionaires to escape the tax by leaving
Left: It's too late to leave now... it's basically impossible to sever residency with California within one month.
Right: The initiative's residency provisions raise significant legal questions, however, and courts could revise or invalidate them, meaning billionaires have cause to believe that a departure sometime this year could spare them from wealth-tax liability.
Whether the 'one-time' tax will remain one-time
Left: Prop. 40 would only levy the tax once, but some opponents, including Newsom, say they're worried about billionaires' threats to leave.
Right: Buried in the fine print is a provision allowing the California legislature to expand the tax—lowering the threshold, adding asset categories—by simple majority vote, without voter approval.

103 sources analyzed

The New Republic NBC News The Lever New York Post City Journal HuffPost The Washington Post Bloomberg Government News Boston Herald City Journal The Boston Globe Los Angeles Times Yahoo New York Post The Federalist The New Republic NBC News Truthout Orange County Register The Federalist Vox CNN FlowingData New York Post City Journal The New Republic PBS NewsHour Newsroom | UCLA New York Post The Daily Signal Salon Politico UA.NEWS RealClearMarkets City Journal Mother Jones NBC News Pacific Research Institute Boston Herald voz.us The Boston Globe PBS NewsHour The Capital Times Boston Herald The Daily Signal Mother Jones Sacramento Bee CBS News New York Post The Federalist Vox NBC News View from the Wing Fox Business National Review The New Republic The Guardian Annenberg Media Investor's Business Daily Fox News The Boston Globe CNN Independent Institute Investor's Business Daily National Review Salon The Washington Post The Press Democrat The Center Square The Federalist Mother Jones CNN Times of San Diego Boston Herald The Daily Signal Vox The Washington Post TaxProf Blog Investor's Business Daily The Daily Signal Salon CNN Le Monde.fr Investor's Business Daily National Review Salon Mustang News National Review Mother Jones California DSA Pleasanton Weekly The Times of India Yahoo Finance BigGo Finance KSLM Radio One Mile at a Time SuaraGarut.ID GuruFocus www.insideflyer.com Live and Let's Fly The Aviation Hub Simple Flying Aviation A2Z

Perspectivity reads the coverage — not just who published it.

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