2026-11-11 · contested story
California voters reject Prop. 40 billionaire wealth tax, 53% to 47%
California voters rejected Proposition 40, a first-in-the-nation one-time 5% tax on the net worth of the state's roughly 200 billionaires, by a margin of roughly 53% to 47% (the AP called it Monday, Nov. 9). The measure, sponsored by SEIU-United Healthcare Workers West, would have raised an estimated $100 billion—90% earmarked for healthcare to offset federal Medicaid cuts under Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill.' The fight became the most expensive ballot campaign in California history, with billionaire-funded groups (led by Google co-founder Sergey Brin, who gave over $100 million) outspending supporters roughly 10 to 1. A companion measure, Prop. 42, which bans future wealth taxes, appeared headed to passage. The campaign bitterly split Democrats: Gov. Gavin Newsom and Gov.-elect Becerra opposed it, while Sen. Bernie Sanders, Rep. Ro Khanna and the state party backed it.
How each side frames it
left
"Greed is on the California ballot, and it appears to be winning."
"Billionaire-funded propaganda may have influenced the outcome of this election, but as hospitals reduce services, emergency rooms close and families lose access to care, the truth will become increasingly difficult to hide"
"Buying an election is not the same as winning the debate"
"He'd rather working class kids die because they can't afford healthcare than pay his fair share in taxes"
"The billionaires opposed to the measure spent like oligarchy was on the line."
center
"The Democratic voters who dominate the California electorate generally support the concept of making wealthy people pay higher taxes. But Democratic leaders were divided over the proposal"
"Those who backed the measure had argued it would help ensure that the ultra-wealthy were contributing their fair share... The wealth tax faced fierce opposition... Newsom... had expressed concerns that the measure could cause the wealthy to leave the state"
"A Stanford University study indicated that billionaires who have already left the state... have removed about $540 billion... The study also concluded that Prop. 40 may generate only about $30 billion... Other economists, including Nobel Prize winners... supported the measure"
"Statewide, the 'no' side for Proposition 40 is getting 55% of the vote versus 45% voting 'yes.' That split exactly matches how it played out in Santa Clara County"
"Zucman blames the corrosive influence of money for Prop 40's failure... 'Popular opinion on wealth taxes is clearly not as strong as proponents thought,' Rauh says."
right
"not only was california's wealth tax rejected by voters, the concept of the wealth tax was banned by voters. eat shit, communists."
"California Risks Killing the Golden Goose With Proposition 40"
"Be forewarned: The progressive Left is targeting the billionaires—first. Then it'll come for you."
"A lot of messaging went around this: 'You're next.' And I think that messaging resonated with people. This is most likely not a one-time tax."
"Even if Prop 40 had passed, California would have been worse off, to the tune of nearly $39 billion in present-value terms."
What each side left out
The left left out — covered by the City Journal & Reason & Cato Institute
- The Stanford/Hoover study estimate that Prop 40 would net California a loss of ~$39 billion
- The documented pre-deadline departures of 7+ billionaires removing ~$540B / ~30% of the tax base
- The European wealth-tax track record (only 3 of 12 countries retain them)
The left left out — covered by the CalMatters & Los Angeles Times & The American Prospect
- Allegations that SEIU-UHW's Dave Regan tried to 'extort' support and intimidate women, and the racketeering lawsuit
The right left out — covered by the Common Dreams & Democracy Now! & Common Dreams
- The open letter from six Nobel laureates endorsing the tax and the finding that CA attracted 80-85% of venture capital in 2026 after Prop 40 was announced
- Zuckerberg's SEC filing showing he restructured to pay the tax and stay in CA for 8 years
The right left out — covered by the Vox & The New Republic
- Research (Cristobal Young, Bharat Ramamurti) showing little millionaire tax-flight at the state level and Massachusetts gaining millionaires after its surtax
The center left out — covered by the CalMatters & The American Prospect & Newsmax
- The deeper internal-union scandal context and moral/constitutional arguments appear less; center focuses on vote mechanics and spending
The left left out — covered by the Business Insider & NPR Planet Money & CBS News
- That several opponents of Prop 40 (Newsom, Steyer) support a wealth tax in principle but at the federal level, complicating the 'oligarchy vs democracy' framing
What's actually true?
[verified] Proposition 40 was rejected by California voters, 52.8% to 47.2% (per AP), called on Monday, Nov. 9, 2026.
[verified] Prop 40 would have imposed a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of California residents with over $1 billion, applying retroactively to those who were residents as of Jan. 1, 2026.
[verified] Google co-founder Sergey Brin contributed more than $100 million (reported figures range $100M-$132M) to defeat the tax, the largest single donor.
[verified] Opponents outspent supporters roughly 10 to 1; total spending across the three intertwined measures exceeded $400 million, making it the most expensive ballot fight in state history.
[verified] Gov. Gavin Newsom opposed Prop 40 and endorsed Prop 42, while Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Ro Khanna backed Prop 40 — the measure split the Democratic Party.
[verified] The nonpartisan Legislative Analyst's Office estimated the tax would raise 'tens of billions of dollars' and could reduce ongoing state income tax revenue by up to ~$1 billion per year if billionaires leave.
[contested] At least seven billionaires (incl. Larry Page, Sergey Brin, Peter Thiel, Travis Kalanick, Steven Spielberg, Don Hankey, David Sacks) left California before the Jan. 1, 2026 deadline.
[verified] Mark Zuckerberg negotiated a new Meta stock class (via SEC filing) to pay the potential tax without losing voting control and agreed to remain in California for eight years.
The narrative clash
How much revenue Prop 40 would actually raise
Left: Proponents calculate that the state will gain about $100 billion
Right: Stanford economists Joshua Rauh and Benjamin Jaros estimated that Proposition 40 would have raised only about $30 billion, less than a third of what proponents projected
Whether the tax would cause net revenue loss from billionaire flight
Left: Even if a quarter of all billionaires had left California because of Prop 40, they pay such a small portion of their wealth in taxes that it would take a century before their lost income taxes exceed the revenues Prop 40's one-time wealth tax would have provided
Right: the loss of future income-tax revenue from departing billionaires would have more than offset any potential gains from the wealth tax itself... California would have been worse off, to the tune of nearly $39 billion in present-value terms
Whether billionaires are actually fleeing California
Left: California actually has increased billionaires since... Proposition 42 has been on the ballot. We've gone from 240 billionaires to 261 billionaires. Eighty-five percent of the venture capital has come into California
Right: At least seven billionaires, with a combined fortune of nearly $540 billion, about 30% of the state's billionaire wealth, have already cut ties with California over the proposed tax
Whether the tax would affect only billionaires or eventually everyone
Left: The 'No on 40' campaign's ads relied heavily on misleading scare tactics that portrayed the one-time tax on approximately 200 people as a threat to ordinary Californians
Right: Buried in the fine print is a provision allowing the California legislature to expand the tax—lowering the threshold, adding asset categories—by simple majority vote, without voter approval
Why it lost: purchased outcome vs. persuaded electorate
Left: The 'no' side didn't win the argument, it bought the result with a 10-to-1 spending advantage.
Right: Voters were genuinely persuaded — the warning that the tax would not stop at billionaires landed with ordinary Californians.
108 sources analyzed
Mother Jones The Philadelphia Inquirer BBC New York Post City Journal Common Dreams CNN 13WHAM-TV Reason The New York Sun Vox The Mercury News The San Francisco Standard Just The News City Journal HuffPost Los Angeles Times Yahoo Fox Business City Journal Daily Kos PBS NewsHour ABC7 New York The Center Square Fox News Salon Al Jazeera CBS News Just The News Fox News The Boston Globe NPR NBC Los Angeles New York Post freebeacon.com Mother Jones The Guardian Yahoo! Search The Dispatch Newsmax Vox NBC News Fortune The Center Square Fox News The Daily Beast Los Angeles Times 10News.com The Center Square The Daily Signal Common Dreams NBC News ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos The Center Square The New York Sun The American Prospect Sacramento Bee Euronews.com New York Post The Daily Signal Mother Jones Los Angeles Times TechCrunch Orange County Register The New York Sun Salon Business Insider University of California, Berkeley Manhattan Institute The Daily Signal Common Dreams The Washington Post The Irish Times New York Post National Review Vox Capital & Main Briefs Finance Just The News The Daily Signal The Boston Globe Politico Democracy Now! Cato Institute The New York Sun The New Republic NPR CalMatters Reason Magazine The Federalist Salon Los Angeles Times ynetnews Boston Herald Washington Examiner The New Republic PBS Bloomberg Government News RealClearMarkets Newsmax Common Dreams CBC Forbes The Dispatch The Federalist The New Republic Gizmodo Oxfam