2026-11-06 · contested story
California Prop 40 billionaire wealth tax trails 56-44 as partial votes counted
California's Proposition 40, a one-time 5% tax on the wealth of roughly 200-250 billionaires meant to raise tens of billions (supporters claimed $100 billion) mostly for healthcare, appeared headed for defeat in the November 2026 election, trailing roughly 56% to 44% with partial returns. The measure—spearheaded by SEIU-United Healthcare Workers West—divided California Democrats, pitting progressives like Bernie Sanders and Rep. Ro Khanna against Gov. Gavin Newsom and the Democratic gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra. Opponents, led by Google co-founder Sergey Brin (who gave over $100 million), outspent supporters by a staggering margin (reported as high as 250-to-1 on advertising), funding not only a 'No on 40' campaign but two competing measures, Props 41 and 42, designed to nullify the tax even if it passed.
How each side frames it
left
"If you spend enough on ads, you really can get people to vote against their own interests"
""Oligarchs in California spent $379 million against Prop 40, a 5% billionaire wealth tax, outraising supporters 250-1," Sanders wrote. "They'd rather poor kids die than pay a little more in taxes. Obscene.""
"So whether it's Prop 40 or Prop 42, California's billionaire class may, after all, be crying wolf again."
"who has thrown a $40 million tantrum over the notion that he may have to pay the billionaire tax"
"Are you for a one-time tax on 250 people for 5 percent so that millions of Californians can get health care? Or are you on the side of protecting the 250 billionaires?"
center
"Californians' appetite for a first-in-the-nation wealth tax appears to be waning."
"Rob Stutzman, a Republican strategist, said the measure's backers "came to that fight with a butter knife against a nuclear arsenal." He added that "money does not guarantee a win.""
"Two economists studied California's billionaire tax. They reached wildly different conclusions"
"Among 105 respondents, 69.5 percent opposed the proposal, including 71.0 percent of economists and 85.0 percent of accountants. Lawyers were more supportive, with 60.0 percent favoring the tax."
"Some progressives think the governor — who is eyeing a possible 2028 presidential run — is just wary of angering a donor class with deep pockets."
right
"California's 'Billionaire Tax' Is a Trojan Horse"
"Be forewarned: The progressive Left is targeting the billionaires—first. Then it'll come for you."
""We're taking the means of production out of the hands of people that built those businesses... and giving them to Bernie Sanders and AOC and politicians to run them," Stern said... "That's socialism.""
"California Risks Killing the Golden Goose With Proposition 40"
"Over 100,000 simulations... 85 percent of plausible outcomes produce a negative result in state revenue."
What each side left out
The left left out — covered by the Reason & National Review & TaxProf Blog & Business Insider
- The Stanford/Hoover study estimating a net revenue LOSS of $25-39 billion
- The survey finding 71% of economists and 85% of accountants oppose the tax
- Administrative/valuation difficulties of assessing non-public assets
The left left out — covered by the Los Angeles Times & Boston Herald & KQED
- That several prominent liberal allies (Planned Parenthood, California Teachers Association, California Medical Association) opposed the measure on fiscal grounds
The right left out — covered by the Daily Kos & Business Insider & Forbes & Boston Herald
- That Mark Zuckerberg ultimately decided to STAY in California, undercutting the mass-exodus narrative
- That Nvidia's Jensen Huang called paying the tax a 'privilege' and other billionaires said they'd stay
The right left out — covered by the Vox & Truthout & NPR & CNN
- Cristobal Young's research (The Myth of Millionaire Tax Flight) and the Norway study finding minimal outmigration
- That proponents designed the Jan 1 2026 residency cutoff specifically to prevent flight
The center left out — covered by the The New Republic
- The deeper moral/anti-oligarchy populist framing (the Epstein-class anger, 'make billionaires pay' as punishment) documented on the left
What's actually true?
[verified] Proposition 40 would impose a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of Californians worth more than $1 billion, affecting roughly 200-250 people.
[verified] With roughly 60% of votes counted, Prop 40 was losing by approximately 56% to 44%.
[verified] Google co-founder Sergey Brin donated more than $100 million (figures cited $102M-$138M) to oppose the tax.
[contested] Opponents outspent supporters by roughly 10-to-1 overall (and reportedly up to 250-to-1 on advertising specifically).
[contested] A Stanford/Hoover study (Rauh and Jaros) estimated the tax would produce a net fiscal LOSS of roughly $25-39 billion due to capital flight and lost income tax.
[verified] Supporters, led by the SEIU-UHW, projected the tax would raise about $100 billion, mostly for healthcare; the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst's Office estimated only 'tens of billions' and possible ongoing income-tax losses.
[verified] Mark Zuckerberg considered leaving California but struck a deal with Meta's board creating a new non-voting share class, allowing him to pay the tax while staying and retaining control.
[verified] Gov. Gavin Newsom opposed Prop 40 and endorsed Prop 42, while supporting a national wealth/minimum tax instead.
The narrative clash
Whether the tax would raise money or cost the state money
Left: If they paid this tax, they would be worth the same as they were on Labor Day of this year... The tax would raise about $100bn, 90% of it for healthcare.
Right: We calculate that Proposition 40 would cost the state of California $39 billion.
Whether billionaires are actually fleeing California
Left: My sense is billionaires will stay and figure out ways to pay the tax. Gavin, you and Sergey Brin should stop fearmongering about a billionaire exodus.
Right: Seven already fled the state after the ballot initiative was filed last year, taking with them $536 billion in wealth, or 29 percent of the tax's base.
Whether the tax could expand beyond billionaires to ordinary people
Left: Any change in the tax would require a two-thirds majority in the assembly and would need to stay true to the spirit of the tax.
Right: Buried in the fine print is a provision allowing the California legislature to expand the tax—lowering the threshold, adding asset categories—by simple majority vote, without voter approval.
Scope — who the tax actually reaches
Left: It is a narrow, one-time 5% levy on roughly 200-250 billionaires and nobody else.
Right: Billionaires are only the opening target; the same machinery will eventually be aimed at ordinary taxpayers.
Capital flight — whether the rich would actually leave
Left: The exodus threat is a bluff the billionaire class has made and failed to deliver on before.
Right: Taxing accumulated wealth drives out the very people who generate California's revenue base.
105 sources analyzed
Common Dreams USA Today AFP New York Post Fox News Daily Kos Los Angeles Times Macau Business Boston Herald City Journal Common Dreams The Mercury News NBC Bay Area New York Post Fox News The Boston Globe NPR Bloomberg Government News Just The News The Daily Signal Common Dreams Los Angeles Times Billionaires.Africa New York Post Washington Examiner Vox Los Angeles Times CalMatters Reason The Daily Signal The Daily Beast CNN ABC 7 Los Angeles New York Post City Journal The New Republic Al Jazeera Ventura County Star The Dispatch The Daily Signal Vox The Guardian Forbes Just The News The Daily Signal The Boston Globe Business Insider Truthout Reason National Review Common Dreams CNN The San Francisco Standard Just The News The Federalist The New Republic USA Today Noozhawk Just The News National Review The New Republic Los Angeles Times The Daily Economy Orange County Register Fox News The New Republic The Washington Post TaxProf Blog Manhattan Institute Fox News The Daily Beast Los Angeles Times Yahoo Investor's Business Daily City Journal The Boston Globe NBC News Pacific Research Institute The Dispatch City Journal Mother Jones NPR KQED The Center Square Fox News The American Prospect CNN Democracy Now! Cato Institute The Federalist The Daily Beast PBS NewsHour Annenberg Media Boston Herald Newsmax Vox NBC News Newsroom | UCLA Reason National Review MSNBC PBS NewsHour Seoul Economic Daily Boston Herald National Review