2026-09-08 · contested story

A Secretive DHS ‘Predictive Policing’ Unit is Analyzing Americans’ Financial Habits and Pulling Them Over

In September 2026, 404 Media revealed the existence of a secretive Border Patrol program called Predictive Intelligence Targeting Teams (PITT), which analyzes Americans' financial activity and other data, then feeds that intelligence to local police who pull people over despite the targets not being 'suspected of any specific crime.' The investigation centered on Kyle William Olson, who was stopped on Interstate 90 in Montana under the pretense of an obstructed license plate, charged with a DUI and drug possession, and later discovered through court discovery that a DHS agent had flagged him based on 'financial activity patterns commonly associated with illicit narcotics activity.' This story sits within a much longer arc of reporting on predictive policing—a practice that Democratic lawmakers, privacy researchers, and civil liberties advocates have challenged for years as inaccurate, racially biased, and constitutionally suspect.

How each side frames it

left
"Border Patrol is running secretive predictive policing units that analyze Americans' financial activity and other data, then feed that intelligence to local police who pull people over who are not suspected of any specific crime"
"The bottom line is genuine probable cause cannot be synthetically generated"
"Predictive policing has been shown to be an ineffective and biased policing tool."
"researchers at the publication recently examined 23,631 police crime predictions—and found them accurate roughly 1 percent of the time"
"Predictive policing systems rely on historical data distorted by falsified crime reports and disproportionate arrests of people of color"
center
"Predictive policing systems digitally redline certain neighborhoods as “hotspots” for crime, with some systems generating lists of people they think are likely to become perpetrators."
"less than one percent of its predictions aligned with a crime later reported to police"
"He was on track to enjoy a retirement that he'll never see now"
"In Houston, the Department of Homeland Security initially claimed Salgado Araujo had 'weaponised his vehicle' during an encounter with agents."
"They are being forced to have quotas again. They are being pushed for numbers and quotas"
right
"Should data scientists be in the business of fingering Americans for crimes they could commit, someday?"
"It's an intriguing idea, if you ignore the dangers of targeting people for what they might do in the future."
"Make their lives miserable until they move or sue."
"Of course, it's not bad to seek innovation and to look for new tools that could make the public safer."
"And when lawmakers asked the Justice Department in 2022 for some documentation on predictive policing, officials admitted they didn't really know how money was being spent"

What each side left out

The left left out — covered by the NBC News & Reason
The right left out — covered by the Brookings Institution & 404 Media & The Markup
The center left out — covered by the 404 Media
The right left out — covered by the bluewin.ch & ABC7 Chicago & International Business Times UK

What's actually true?

[verified] Border Patrol's Predictive Intelligence Targeting Teams (PITT) analyze Americans' financial activity and feed intelligence to local police who conduct traffic stops of people not suspected of any specific crime.
[verified] Kyle William Olson was stopped on I-90 in Montana under the pretense of an obstructed license plate after a Border Patrol agent flagged 'financial activity patterns commonly associated with illicit narcotics activity.'
[verified] Seven members of Congress, led by Sen. Ron Wyden and Rep. Yvette Clarke, sent a letter dated Jan. 29, 2024, urging the DOJ to halt grants for predictive policing systems.
[verified] The DOJ admitted it 'does not have specific records' of which grant recipients used funds for predictive policing.
[verified] A Markup investigation of Geolitica's algorithm found less than one percent of its predictions aligned with a crime later reported to police.
[verified] The National Institute of Justice has given $10 million to predictive-policing projects since 2009.
[verified] Pasco County, Florida's predictive policing program generated lists of likely offenders and sent deputies to interrogate people 'often without probable cause, a search warrant or evidence of a specific crime,' and was later discontinued amid lawsuits.
[contested] At least 45 people have died in ICE detention centers since the start of the second Trump administration, according to ICE records.

The narrative clash

Whether predictive policing effectively reduces crime
Left: Mounting evidence indicates that predictive policing technologies do not reduce crime.
Right: After 21 months, the mathematical model was pinpointing crime hotspots twice as accurately as the professionals, leading to a greater reduction in crime in places where it was used.
Whether ICE detainees receive adequate medical care
Left: individuals in custody... have been denied or experienced significant delays in accessing both emergency and routine medical care
Right: DHS officials have been adamant there is no spike in deaths, and that while people are housed by ICE, they receive 'the best healthcare they have received [in] their entire lives.'

18 sources analyzed

The Damage Report Fast Company New Lines Magazine Reason The Marshall Project ABC7 Chicago 404 Media bluewin.ch Wired The Mirror US Gizmodo International Business Times UK NBC News The Conversation Deutsche Welle The Markup Brookings Institution The Wall Street Journal

Perspectivity reads the coverage — not just who published it.

Read the full interactive analysis →